SENATE SCORECARD – AT 10:04 A.M. ET:   We are getting increasing signs, if trends continue, that Republicans may well take control of the Senate in November.  There is no better political reporter than John Fund.  From NRO: 

Two things are becoming clear about this November’s U.S. Senate races. First, more and more analysts now say Republicans are likely to win at least the 51 seats needed for control of the Senate. Second, the result is that Democrats will run even more desperately negative campaigns in an effort to hold onto power. But don’t expect too much media thumb-sucking about “attack ads” this fall, since the worst are almost certain to come from the left.

In the battle for Senate control, analysts from left to right give the GOP an edge. Mark Blumenthal, the pollster for the Huffington Post, this week gave Republicans a 55 percent chance of taking back the Senate, which the Democrats have held since 2007. Among the close races, he says Arkansas and Louisiana are likely to tilt Republican, while Colorado and Iowa are “truly 50–50 races.”
Other analysts ranging from Larry Sabato to Charlie Cook to FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver also give the GOP the edge. Silver, who predicted Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection on the nose, says the GOP has a 65 percent chance of capturing the Senate. In his analysis: “Republicans can win the Senate solely by winning Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, states which voted for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by an average of 19 percentage points in 2012.”

Then there is political analyst Stu Rothenberg, who has been observing elections since 1980. This week he wrote in Roll Call that he now believes the Republicans will crest a political wave and make a net gain of seven Senate seats, but he wouldn’t be surprised if they went higher. “The combination of an unpopular president and a midterm election (indeed, a second midterm) can produce disastrous results for the president’s party,” he concluded.

Even before this week’s predictions of doom by political analysts, Democratic senators were already running hysterical ads against their opponents. The Washington Free Beacon noted that “Senator Mark Begich (D., Alaska) was recently forced to pull an inflammatory ad falsely linking his GOP opponent, former state Attorney General Dan Sullivan, to a gruesome murder, after the victims’ family expressed outrage at not being consulted and accused Begich of exploiting a tragedy for political gain.”

COMMENT:  And the Dems are trotting out the old "war on women" charge, which will become more vociferous as election day approaches.  The line is failing badly in Texas, where Wendy Davis is in near-collapse in her campaign for the governorship.  Women just aren't buying, and for good reason.  It may come as a shock to Democrats, but women are interested in other things besides birth control and abortion. 

Anything can happen in the remaining weeks of the campaign.  But the trend, although not all that strong yet, appears to be in our direction.

September 12, 2014